Monday, May 17, 2010

Election 2010: Incumbents, Duck And Cover [UPDATED]

I try not to put much stock in polls but I am seeing a pretty clear trend in them this election cycle. Moderate Republican and Democrat incumbents are not fairing well at all. This explains why so many Democrats have bailed out. Better to go out quietly than to be thrown out.

A CBS/NYT poll showed that only 8 percent (that's not a typo, it says 8) of adults would reelect incumbent politicians. That is the lowest rating since the poll began in 1992. 81 percent would say "hasta la vista" to their elected officials. The 3 percent margin of error is irrelevant.

In Pennsylvania, 53 percent of Pennsylvanians and 66 percent of Republican Pennsylvanians want Sen. Arlen Specter replaced. Specter jumped from the Republican party to the Democrat party after the 2008 election. Rasmussen has Toomey up by 12 points over Specter. Some people say Toomey is "too conservative" for the liberal Northeast. We'll see.

In Kentucky, Rand Paul (son of Ron Paul) has a 20-point lead over the moderate Republican incumbent, Trey Grayson.

In Utah, Sen. Bob Bennett was not renominated by the Republican Convention due to his support of the TARP bill and for being moderate.

In Florida, Gov. Charlie Crist had to ditch his GOP campaign for U.S. Senate to run as an independent because he saw the writing on the wall. Marco Rubio, the more conservative candidate, was all but assured a victory in the primary.

In Arkansas, Sen. Blanche Lincoln, who voted for Obamacare, is on her way out. Against EVERY GOP candidate running (there are six), she loses.

This is going to be an interesting election. Don't count the Dems out though. They will put out every nasty trick they can dredge up to try to keep their majorities.


Rand Paul, considered an ultra-conservative, defeated his moderate Republican opponent.

Specter is gone. Defeated in the Democratic primary.

Lincoln is in a runoff with ultra-liberal Bill Halter. This one is going to be very interesting. In either case, the winner loses to Republican John Boozman according to a recent Rasmussen poll.

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